Diary of a Fan

Saturday, November 04, 2006

Start Luque?

I was thinking a bit more about the fact Luque scored yet seems pretty likely to be dropped to the bench at best later today (there might be an argument that the squad rotation is necessary given the number of games but it's not a very good one really). There was also a piece in the local rag mentioning how Luque hadn't exactly hit it off, but it did manage to mention that, really, he hadn't had the chance. That got me thinking about actual numbers (that's just the sort of person I am), so I thought I'd do a little comparison. I have to confess, I was mainly interested in comparing to Martins, a player who in my opinion hasn't exactly set the pitch alight in his time here but who would be pretty much guaranteed a start were he fit. As I was doing it though I thought I may as well include Ameobi and Rossi (I left Owen out because, well, frankly none of the others are the same class). I pulled numbers from the BBC's squad profiles to get this chart:

A bar chart comparing Luque's goal scoring record to that of Ameobi, Martins and Rossi

The chart shows the number of goals per game for each player, both for this season and in their total Newcastle career (which for Rossi and Martins is of course the same thing). At first glance Luque's record does indeed look poor, until one remembers that most of his limited time has been as a substitute. Examining the goals per start shows a record comparable with that of Martins. Looking at only this season becomes even more interesting. Luque's goals per game has greatly improved and his goals per start ratio is the best of the four strikers.

Of course this is far from an in depth analysis; there are many factors I've not included---consistency, number of minutes actually on the pitch, injuries carried... but as Luque himself has pointed out he cannot improve, or indeed even show anything (good or bad), if he is not playing. Anybody who watched him play in Spain knows he is talented (and that he hasn't really been played in his natural position at all for us); with the current crises in injuries perhaps it is time to give him a run and see if we can get anywhere with him, rather than again writing it off as an expensive mistake no matter what the lad does, and despite of any improvement he shows.

(@14:11)

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